Monsoon Update: Delayed Arrival Predicted, Kerala to Witness Rainfall by June 5th
The much-awaited southwest monsoon is predicted to arrive in Kerala later than usual this year, bringing unfavorable news for farmers across the country. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the start of the southwest monsoon in the southern state will be postponed by four days. Typically, the monsoon makes its first appearance in Kerala around June 1st, marking the official commencement of the rainy season in India. Last year, in 2022, the monsoon reached Kerala on May 29th, while in 2021, it arrived on June 1st.
Despite the delay, meteorological experts suggest that the monsoon is likely to remain within normal parameters this year. The IMD's earlier announcement indicated that the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall is expected to be around 96%. When rainfall falls between 90% and 95% of the LPA, it is considered below normal. If
the rainfall ranges from 96% to 104% of the LPA, it is deemed normal. Rainfall between 104% and 110% of the LPA is classified as above normal, while above 110% is considered excess rainfall, and below 90% is categorized as deficient rainfall.
The timely arrival and adequate distribution of monsoon rainfall are crucial for India's agriculture sector, as approximately 70% of the country's rainfall occurs during the southwest monsoon season. The availability of water from monsoon rains is a lifeline for 70% to 80% of farmers who depend on irrigation for their crops. Consequently, their crop yields are significantly influenced by the performance of the monsoon, be it good or bad. A poor monsoon can exacerbate inflationary pressures, further burdening the farmers.
In addition to its impact on agriculture, the monsoon also plays a vital role in overall food grain production.
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If the rainfall remains normal, the country can expect to maintain a healthy food grain production level. This forecast brings hope for relief from rising prices and potential stability in food supplies. The sowing of summer crops usually begins around June 1st, coinciding with the arrival of the monsoon in India. The sowing process continues until August. Hence, the timely and adequate monsoon rainfall is vital for a successful agricultural season.
It is essential to note that the official declaration of monsoon onset is made based on specific criteria. The announcement is made when at least 8 out of 14 designated stations in Kerala, Lakshadweep, and Karnataka report a minimum of 2.5 millimeters of rainfall for two consecutive days. This criterion ensures a comprehensive assessment of the monsoon's progress and widespread impact in the region.
Stay informed and prepared for the
delayed monsoon this year. Keep track of the latest weather updates from the IMD and local meteorological authorities. By staying updated, farmers can plan their agricultural activities accordingly, making the best use of available resources and minimizing potential risks.
In conclusion, while the southwest monsoon is anticipated to arrive later than usual in Kerala, the overall outlook suggests a normal monsoon with expected rainfall within the Long Period Average range. This news brings optimism for farmers and the general public, as it signals the possibility of adequate food grain production and potential relief from inflationary pressures. By closely monitoring the monsoon's progress and adjusting farming practices accordingly, farmers can optimize their yields and contribute to the nation's agricultural stability.
Remember to stay connected to reliable sources for accurate and up-to-date information on the monsoon's progress and its impact on various regions.